Convective Outlook: Tue 03 Nov 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 03 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 04 Nov 2020

ISSUED 07:49 UTC Tue 03 Nov 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A comma cloud feature will continue to clear eastwards to the North Sea from central and southern Britain on Tuesday morning, while still posing the risk for a few isolated lightning strikes. Longer spells of rain in parts of Scotland will also clear to the North Sea. Elsewhere, a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers is expected, the showers heaviest and most widespread near western coasts fuelled by the relatively warm seas. By the afternoon shear becomes fairly weak under the upper trough axis, but given a few hundred J/kg CAPE then a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible - the main focus near western coasts and English Channel, but perhaps also feeding inland across the NW England / NW Midlands for example. SW England could see quite a number of showers late afternoon and through the evening. However, the overall risk is considered below SLGT thresholds. Showers will gradually ease in intensity and coverage during the evening and night hours. Hail is likely in many of the showers, and gusty winds of 40-50mph are also possible along exposed coasts.