Convective Outlook: Thu 10 Dec 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 10 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 11 Dec 2020

ISSUED 10:33 UTC Thu 10 Dec 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will extend southeastwards across Ireland / western Britain into NW Europe on Thursday evening and night, with cool air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs. A marked dry intrusion will overspread a moist low-level airmass, with increasing instability over the Celtic Sea through the night. Consequently, scattered showers will likely develop and migrate eastwards across parts of Ireland, SW England and towards the Channel Islands, which may be capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes. Small risk of a few isolated lightning strikes embedded within the frontal rain tracking across Ireland / Irish Sea / Celtic Sea on Thursday afternoon.