Convective Outlook: Mon 14 Dec 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Dec 2020

ISSUED 07:57 UTC Mon 14 Dec 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low remains anchored to the NW of the British Isles throughout Monday, with a broad southwesterly flow aloft. The resultant cool pool atop relatively warm SSTs will generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE, and consequently numerous showers are expected to develop over open waters in the south and west throughout this forecast period, pushing northeastwards inland. The environment is most conducive to a few sporadic lightning strikes through the Irish Sea into parts of Wales and NW England, but perhaps also SW Scotland and SW England. The strongly-sheared environment across England and Wales suggests the potential for line segments and perhaps a low-topped supercell, both capable of producing squally winds and the small risk of an isolated tornado. A low-end SLGT (25-30% chance) has been issued where the lightning risk is considered greatest overall.