Convective Outlook: Sat 26 Dec 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 Dec 2020

ISSUED 10:21 UTC Sat 26 Dec 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large upper low will advance southeastwards from Iceland towards Scotland through Boxing Day. Increasing divergence / lift on the forward side as a series of cold fronts migrate southeastwards will bring bands of increasingly heavy rain across the British Isles. A combination of increasing shear and stronger forcing is likely to result in several episodes of broken line segments developing during the evening and night hours, especially as stronger forcing engages with the cold front(s) later in the night. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible (10-15% chance), but the risk of damaging gusts of wind and an isolated tornado will exist. 

The post-frontal environment will be characterised by cold air aloft overspreading relatively warm SSTs. Numerous showers will develop across Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland through the night which may also be capable of producing a few isolated lightning strikes (20-25% chance), hail in many showers and squally winds.