Convective Outlook: Tue 16 Feb 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Feb 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Feb 2021

ISSUED 07:43 UTC Tue 16 Feb 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

The main focus will be associated with a shortwave migrating northeastwards across England and Wales on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Clusters of heavy showers are likely, which may be capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes - with a particular area of interest highlighted by the low-end SLGT (25-30% chance) in parts of the West Country / South Midlands as enhanced low-level wind convergence develops near the Bristol Channel and may aid convective development to produce a few lightning strikes. Given 30-40kts DLS and a few hundred J/kg CAPE, some cells may become organised at times with perhaps a low-topped supercell. Hail is likely in several showers.