Convective Outlook: Thu 11 Mar 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 Mar 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 Mar 2021

ISSUED 09:04 UTC Thu 11 Mar 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough axis and associated cold pool will migrate eastwards across Britain and Ireland on Thursday daytime, creating an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will develop over seas initially, moving well-inland on the strong westerly steering winds but also reinforced by diurnal heating inland also. Some modest shear may aid updraft/downdraft separation and maintain longevity of some cells. As such, there will likely be some sporadic lightning in places, although pinpointing specific areas in this setup is rather challenging. The risk overall is considered 10-15%, so not quite active enough to warrant a SLGT. Gusty winds and hail will likely accompany many of the showers, which may be rather squally at times.