Convective Outlook: Sat 13 Mar 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 13 Mar 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 14 Mar 2021

ISSUED 08:21 UTC Sat 13 Mar 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough covers the British Isles on Saturday, with a trough axis swinging southeastwards across Ireland in the morning and England/Wales during the afternoon hours. Thereafter upper ridging begins to build from the west, such that the steering flow veers more northwesterly and convection begins to weaken. Nonetheless, scattered showers will affect some areas through this forecast period, most frequent in western areas. Given a few hundred J/kg CAPE and some modest shear, a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible - although once again the risk is generally 10-15% in any one location. Gusty winds and hail will likely accompany several showers.