Convective Outlook: Thu 25 Mar 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 25 Mar 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 26 Mar 2021

ISSUED 07:26 UTC Thu 25 Mar 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A minor shortwave will track eastwards across southern Britain during Thursday daytime, which coinciding with diurnal heating and some surface confluence will aid in the development of scattered showers across southern England, the south Midlands and into East Anglia. Convection will likely be too shallow for lightning, but a very low risk has been introduced (5%). Otherwise, numerous showers/pulses of showery rain will affect NW England, W Scotland and parts of Ireland throughout this forecast period, becoming more widespread during Thursday night. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible, more especially W Scotland and W Ireland during the evening/night hours where the environment will be more favourable for deep convection.

A cold front will migrate eastwards across W Scotland and Ireland during the night hours, and given the strongly-sheared environment there may be scope for embedded line segments capable of producing squally winds and hail. Some clusters of sporadic lightning may also be possible, more especially south of Ireland over the Celtic Sea and perhaps approaching SW England towards the very end of the night - although confidence on this aspect is low.