Convective Outlook: Tue 30 Mar 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Mar 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 31 Mar 2021

ISSUED 11:49 UTC Tue 30 Mar 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

On the western flank of a large upper ridge covering much of Europe an elevated mixed layer will advect northwards from Iberia across Biscay into Britain. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will develop across England and Wales on Tuesday night, and some Ac/AcCas will likely spread northeastwards - especially during the early hours of Wednesday. Rain from any showers that do develop will largely evaporate in the dry near-surface layers, and the overall depth of convection is likely to be rather shallow and so the risk of lightning is considered very low (5%).