Convective Outlook: Tue 27 Apr 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Apr 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Apr 2021

ISSUED 06:21 UTC Tue 27 Apr 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A weak low will continue to slide slowly southwards across Britain through Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a messy mode of dynamic and convective precipitation. Diurnal heating will aid a few hundred J/kg CAPE in the best of any sunshine, especially across SW Scotland, NW England and southern/western portions of Ireland where mid-level lapse rates will be steepest - therefore it is these areas that exhibit the best environment for deep convection and a few isolated lightning strikes (10%). The risk of lightning, albeit very low, is maintained through the overnight hours as forcing aloft encourages areas of showery rain to develop in places - more especially over the Midlands / Wales / SW England. Small hail will be possible in the most intense cells, while convergent winds in the slack regime over England/Wales could allow a couple of funnel clouds to occur.