Convective Outlook: Sat 01 May 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 01 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 02 May 2021

ISSUED 07:19 UTC Sat 01 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Little change is anticipated for Saturday, with a slack, chilly airmass in place. Some areas of showers near coastal areas initially, driven through a combination of relatively warm SSTs and minor disturbances aloft, with additional scattered showers developing inland through the day in response to diurnal heating and surface forcing mechanisms (orographic lift and low-level convergence). Despite a few hundred J/kg CAPE, weak shear and limited cloud depth suggests lightning will be isolated and short-lived per individual cells - perhaps greatest in the Devon/Dorset area (10-15%). Small hail is likely in many showers, enough to locally carpet roads and produce icy conditions temporarily. Steep low-level lapse rates and the slack surface pattern may encourage a couple of funnel clouds to develop. E/SE Scotland exhibits some interesting curved hodographs/substantial backing of the low-level winds by late afternoon/evening, although speed shear is weak.