Convective Outlook: Sun 02 May 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 02 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 03 May 2021

ISSUED 20:22 UTC Sat 01 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough axis and associated cold pool will drift eastwards across the North Sea and Central Europe on Sunday, with warming and ridging aloft following from the west. The net result is a reduction in the depth of convection for Sunday, but nonetheless scattered showers are likely to develop once again in response to diurnal heating yielding a few hundred J/kg CAPE. A shortwave trough is likely to be located over the Irish Sea at 06z Sunday, responsible for offshore showers initially, and this will drift slowly east-southeastwards over England and Wales during the day also aiding development of showers. In general the risk of lightning in any one location is considered very low, around 5-10%, but a gradual strengthening of the mid-level flow during the afternoon and resultant slight increase in speed shear may be enough to compensate and produce a few isolated lightning strikes. Small hail is likely in several showers. Showers will tend to decay through the evening and overnight hours (although persisting in northern Scotland and some western coasts) as a deepening Atlantic low and frontal rain eventually arrives from the west.