|Convective Outlook: Tue 04 May 2021|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 04 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 05 May 2021
ISSUED 06:33 UTC Tue 04 May 2021br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
An upper low will cross the North Sea to Denmark on Tuesday, but the northerly flow in its wake will advect a notably cold airmass southwards and curving eastwards across the UK and Ireland. A strip of shear vorticity will straddle a zone from Ireland - Wales - northern Home Counties on the northern flank of a strong mid-level jet. As the cold mid/upper-level air feeds southeastwards through the day, mid-level lapse rates will steepen significantly and when combined with diurnal heating inland will yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE - most pronounced across Ireland. As a result, numerous showers will develop quite widely through the day, becoming organised into more distinct curved bands where low-level confluence becomes maximised. Guidance continues to suggest a more organised area of rain could evolve from SW Scotland - NW England - N Midlands - N East Anglia.