VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 19 May 2021

ISSUED 06:32 UTC Tue 18 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Yet another day of broad upper troughing covering northwest Europe, with cold mid-levels over the UK/Ireland. Temperatures at 500mb will be slightly colder compared with Monday, but conversely heights will slowly rise through the day with slightly weaker mid-level flow. PVA lobes will slide eastwards across central/southern Britain through the day, providing broad ascent and consequently areas of showery rain associated with a comma feature which will slide across Wales / SW England during the morning before gradually breaking up into showers - however the cloud cover associated with this feature does raise some concerns about the amount of surface heating that can occur here and perhaps into the West Midlands. Ahead of this, diurnal heating will allow showers and weak thunderstorms to quickly develop across parts of the Midlands and eastern England, and across Ireland, with cold pools/outflow also likely aiding daughter cells nearby. Convergence over southern England may also aid deeper convection here also. Either way, some sporadic lightning will occur in places in an environment with fairly weak deep layer shear - and so pulse-type convection is most likely once again.