Convective Outlook: Wed 19 May 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 19 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 20 May 2021

ISSUED 06:41 UTC Wed 19 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Once again, broad upper troughing covers northwest Europe on Wednesday with a mid-level cold pool over the UK/Ireland - however, this will finally shift eastwards as ridging and warm air advection approaches from the Atlantic. A PVA lobe will provide cloud and showery rain to S / SE England on Wednesday morning (perhaps also East Anglia), casting some uncertainty over surface heating through the day. Elsewhere (and assuming this clears) diurnal heating combined with orographic forcing and low-level convergence will once again result in scattered showers developing through the day, some producing hail to 1.0-1.5cm in diameter and sporadic lightning - more especially towards eastern Britain. Weak shear will result in pulse-type storm mode once again. Onshore breezes will develop through the day, creating enhanced convergence near coasts and aiding the potential for a couple of funnel clouds. Wind gusts of 50-55mph may be possible from the strongest cells. Activity will gradually ease through the evening hours as ridging temporarily builds ahead of a deep Atlantic low pressure system approaching from the west overnight.