Convective Outlook: Thu 20 May 2021 |
|
What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 20 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 21 May 2021
ISSUED 06:07 UTC Thu 20 May 2021
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
During Thursday morning pockets of shallow convection may spread northeastwards across Ireland, within a strongly-sheared environment. Forecast profiles suggest very moist low-mid levels with weak CAPE but some veering of winds with height. Lightning risk is considered rather low but non-zero. Some additional deep convection may be possible here close to the low centre during the afternoon, but some uncertainty over the extent of cloud breaks and sufficient surface heating.
Elsewhere, attention also turns to parts of England and Wales during the afternoon/evening with modest surface heating yielding a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Profiles suggest the potential for low-topped convection with >40kts cloud-layer shear and some backing of the low-level winds. A substantial dry intrusion will overspread a moist low-level profile. The net result is line segments could evolve, spreading northeastwards with time, capable of producing squally winds and perhaps a few lightning strikes - but the latter aspect is uncertain given the limited depth of convection. The strong low-level shear (speed and directional) suggests at least the threat of an isolated tornado across Wales, the West Country and the Midlands, should any substantial convection be able to develop.