Convective Outlook: Sat 22 May 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 22 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 23 May 2021

ISSUED 06:53 UTC Sat 22 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will develop by Saturday afternoon, and while the depth of convection will be limited a few isolated lightning strikes may occur - more especially across S / SE England. Overnight the attention turns to western Ireland as the occlusion arrives from the Atlantic. Given the strongly-sheared environment, some elements of line convection/LEWP seem plausible, especially close to SW Ireland and then offshore. The shallow nature of convection suggests the lightning potential is rather low, but squally winds in excess of 50mph and perhaps some hail will be possible.