Convective Outlook: Mon 24 May 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 May 2021

ISSUED 06:51 UTC Mon 24 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will track eastwards across the UK/Ireland on Monday, with cold air aloft creating an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and 300-600 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating. A couple of surface lows will provide the focus for areas of showery rain associated with wrap-around occlusions, one over northern Scotland and another over Wales and central/southern England, and this creates a rather messy setup with cloud and lowered surface temperatures near these features. Elsewhere, numerous showers and weak thunderstorms are likely to develop, and the distribution of these will shift through the day. Under the upper trough axis, shear will be rather weak leading to mostly pulse-type storm mode. However, backed low-level winds and slightly stronger flow aloft will exist in advance of the occlusion across northern and eastern England, and this may aid somewhat in cell longevity. The strongest cells may produce hail 1.0-1.5cm in diameter and wind gusts of 40-50mph. The slow storm motion could result in some localised surface water flooding. The slack surface flow over inland parts and resultant low-level convergence may provide the opportunity for a few funnel clouds.