Convective Outlook: Tue 25 May 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 25 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 26 May 2021

ISSUED 07:19 UTC Tue 25 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough lingers over central and northwest Europe on Tuesday, with the associated cold pool creating an unstable environment and yielding 300-500 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating. The main trough axis and coldest mid-level air will be found in a zone from NW Scotland down to the Humber, and so it is this corridor that has the best potential for deep convection and some lightning activity. Areas of rain initially will likely turn increasingly convective through the day, and a few sporadic lightning strikes are likely - particularly S / SW Scotland and northern England, perhaps also East Anglia. A couple of low-end SLGTs (25-30% chance) have been issued, but in general the coverage of lightning is likely less than the past couple of days. Showers are also likely elsewhere, such as south Wales and SE England, but here the depth of convection will tend to be notably shallower and so the risk of lightning is lower.