Convective Outlook: Fri 04 Jun 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 04 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 05 Jun 2021

ISSUED 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Outbreaks of rain are expected to spread across the English Channel into CS / SE England, Home Counties, East Anglia and parts of the E Midlands on Friday. However, despite some weak mid-level instability, skinny CAPE and saturated profiles suggests the risk of lightning overall is quite low. There is a small chance in East Anglia, ahead of the main rain, that if surface temperatures reach 21-22C some surface-based convection could occur. However, the much better environment will be restricted to the nearby Continent where once again another day of active thunderstorms is expected.