Convective Outlook: Tue 29 Jun 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 29 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 30 Jun 2021

ISSUED 21:32 UTC Mon 28 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low centred over NW France will gradually lift northeastwards through Tuesday across northern France. Extensive cloud and pulses of showery rain may affect parts of southern and eastern England at times, although the exact detail is unclear and varies amongst model guidance. However, there may be scope for some cloud breaks to occur close to the coast of S / SE England and could aid surface heating and the development of sea breeze convergence. This could provide the focus for a few heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon hours, probably along the immediate coastline or even offshore given the northeasterly steering flow - however this will be heavily dependent on sufficient surface heating which is questionable. Other heavy showers may also develop in response to low-level convergence and orographic forcing across hillier parts of SW England, Wales, NW England and SW Scotland, drifting southwestwards and then offshore.