VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 01 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 02 Jul 2021

ISSUED 20:55 UTC Wed 30 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Rex block pattern dominates over central/northern Europe on Thursday, with an upper ridge over the UK/Ireland gradually eroding through the day. At the surface single figure dewpoints are expected in northern and eastern England, but across Wales, the West Midlands and southern England dewpoints may be as high as 14-17C in some places. Low-level convergence (such as sea breeze) and orographic forcing will probably aid in a few heavy showers developing by the afternoon and evening hours. Forecast profiles are rather dry with capping at ~700mb, however sufficient surface heating coupled with reasonably high dewpoints will in theory be able to allow taller convection to develop with the chance of a few lightning strikes - this perhaps most likely over Cen S England. A PV strip will slide slowly southwestwards across England and Wales through the day, potentially aiding some ascent on the leading side that may well encourage showers to continue developing well into the evening hours and possibly even overnight (especially south Midlands towards SE England). Additional showers are also likely to develop in response to diurnal heating in southern Scotland and parts of Ireland.