Initially in the morning a PVA lobe will lift northwards across England and Wales, creating broad ascent with showery outbreaks of rain - with the potential for embedded convection to enhance rainfall intensity. As this early rain clears, increasing insolation and surface heating will help yield as much as 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE in places with forecast profiles revealing an incremental decrease in RH with height. For the most part, winds will be fairly unidirectional with height with only a slight increase in speed - the net result is fairly weak shear (generally 10-15kts), however stronger upper-level flow over eastern England could aid in better organisation/longevity of cells here with a greater potential for marginally-severe hail and perhaps an isolated tornado, especially where vorticity stretching occurs as updrafts move over existing low-level convergence. Particular focus on Norfolk and perhaps Lincolnshire, where a SVR has been introduced for the risk of hail locally up to 2cm in diameter.

In general, the slow storm motion coupled with any backbuilding could result in local flash flooding - this appears greatest over Devon and Somerset where a persistent convergence zone aligned near-parallel with the steering flow could result in multiple cells running over similar areas, giving locally very high rainfall totals. As a result a SVR has been introduced for the heightened threat of flash flooding, especially given the terrain and catchment response in the area.

A gradual weakening trend is likely through the mid-late evening, however PVA lifting north across northern England and southern Scotland may continue to aid development here for a time into the night hours. Otherwise, the main focus during the overnight period turns once again to the English Channel (and eventually southern England) as another PVA lobe encourages broad lift and areas of showery rain to develop - and again there will be the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes given weak/skinny CAPE.