Convective Outlook: Thu 08 Jul 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 08 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 09 Jul 2021

ISSUED 06:27 UTC Thu 08 Jul 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough slowly weakens as it exits to the North Sea, but still close enough to influence conditions across England in particular. Diurnal heating of moist low-levels (dewpoints 14-16C) will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE, greatest towards East Anglia where cooler mid-levels exist. For the most part, forecast profiles reveal substantial warm/dry mid-levels capping convection to relative shallow depths, so while numerous showers may develop they are unlikely to produce much (if any) lightning. The main exception is East Anglia, where the warming aloft is less-pronounced leading to taller, skinny CAPE and the potential for cloud tops to push close to 30,000ft. If deep convection can develop, it may be able to utilise strong northwesterly flow aloft to increase cloud-layer shear. Overall the risk is uncertain given a slight warm bulge at ~600mb that may prevent convection growing taller, but have tentatively introduced a low-end SLGT (25-30% chance). Showers may take quite some time to decay during the mid-late evening hours.