Convective Outlook: Thu 29 Jul 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 29 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 30 Jul 2021

ISSUED 07:22 UTC Thu 29 Jul 2021

ISSUED BY: Chris

The upper low that helped produce widespread thunderstorms on Wednesday will edge away to the east into Scandinavia, however a small shortwave trough combined with 200-400 J/kg of CAPE will lead to the development of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across E Scotland and NE England. The risk of lightning will be greatest across far SE Scotland. 

A jet streak will move south of Ireland from this afternoon through the overnight period helping to deepen a small area of low pressure that will spread into southwestern parts of England and and Wales. The main risk with this low will be heavy rain and the potential for gales and strong wind gusts along the south coast of Wales and across southwest England. Gusts of 70-80mph will be possible for a time along the coast of Cornwall for example. There will be some instability wrapped into the low, with 200-500 J/Kg of CAPE moving near western coasts by late evening and around midnight. This combined with large potential vorticity leading to a dry intrusion around the low centre could generate some active thunderstorms for a time, with the potential for some very strong gusts.