Convective Outlook: Sat 31 Jul 2021 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 31 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Aug 2021
ISSUED 07:33 UTC Sat 31 Jul 2021
br> br>ISSUED BY: Chris
A broad upper trough will linger across Britain leading to a scattering of showers, a few perhaps heavy with a rumble of thunder into the afternoon.
The area with the largest chance for lightning appears to be a zone across London, Essex and Kent during Saturday due to a combination of around 300-500 J/kg of CAPE and weak surface convergence aided by a little terrain induced lift. There is very little shear in this set-up and profiles aloft are rather warm, so convection may be limited, and in most cases too weak to produce lightning.
Elsewhere the risk of lightning will be low, however convection/showers will likely develop across southern and eastern parts of England as well as in a zone from north Wales southeastwards down through the Midlands and into SE England.