Convective Outlook: Sun 01 Aug 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 01 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 02 Aug 2021

ISSUED 06:56 UTC Sun 01 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Chris

A broad trough will extend from southern Scandinavia into southern England with a weak cold front spreading southwards across England through the day. A small area of instability will remain across far southern and southeastern parts of England and this will be the focal point for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms into the afternoon. 


CAPE of 300-500 J/kg will develop across southern parts of England during the afternoon and combined with surface convergence and some orographic enhancement may be enough to produce a few thunderstorms. However, there are several limiting factors, mid-level profiles are relatively warm and dry, shear is almost non-existent and ELTs will only be around -20C so given this lightning risk is fairly low-end, even in the SLGT area. 

Given surface convergence, any stronger updrafts could develop a few funnel clouds in the early stages of development. 

The main hazard will be heavier downpours which could produce up to 20-25mm of rain in a short period.