Convective Outlook: Sun 01 Aug 2021 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 01 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 02 Aug 2021
ISSUED 06:56 UTC Sun 01 Aug 2021
br> br>ISSUED BY: Chris
A broad trough will extend from southern Scandinavia into southern England with a weak cold front spreading southwards across England through the day. A small area of instability will remain across far southern and southeastern parts of England and this will be the focal point for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms into the afternoon.
CAPE of 300-500 J/kg will develop across southern parts of England during the afternoon and combined with surface convergence and some orographic enhancement may be enough to produce a few thunderstorms. However, there are several limiting factors, mid-level profiles are relatively warm and dry, shear is almost non-existent and ELTs will only be around -20C so given this lightning risk is fairly low-end, even in the SLGT area.
Given surface convergence, any stronger updrafts could develop a few funnel clouds in the early stages of development.
The main hazard will be heavier downpours which could produce up to 20-25mm of rain in a short period.