Convective Outlook: Mon 02 Aug 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 02 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 03 Aug 2021

ISSUED 06:24 UTC Mon 02 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Chris

A weak short-wave trough will dive southeastwards across Ireland and southwestern parts of Britain today and will help to generate scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms by the afternoon mainly across parts of SE Wales and SW England. 


Ahead and near the short wave, CAPE values of around 300 J/kg will develop across the slight area in combination with weak surface convergence and some orographic enhancement. Profiles are rather warm with ELTs of only around -15C and with the lack of any significant instability or shear, lightning risk will be limited. This is considered a quite low-end SLGHT risk area. 

Even with the lack of shear and instability, weak surface convergence and orographic lift may lead to the development of a few funnel clouds during any more significant updrafts that can develop. 

Like yesterday, the main hazard today will localised heavy rainfall where some places may see between 20-30mm of rain, particularly around SE Wales, Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire. 

An ISOL area has also been issued for much of Ireland, which will see more of an area of rain associated with the shortwave, however some embedded convection is possible there with a very low-end potential of a few lightning strikes.