Convective Outlook: Tue 03 Aug 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 03 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 04 Aug 2021

ISSUED 08:08 UTC Tue 03 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Chris

A slack pressure pattern across the British Isles will allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop quite widely in response to daytime heating. However, lapse rates and ELTs are quite limited and with CAPE of only 200-300 J/kg lightning is considering only a low risk today, and thus only an ISOL risk has been issued. 


There is a zone around Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire and westwards toward Birmingham and the north Midlands that seems to be the focal point for some slightly heavier showers and thus the risk in this zone is slightly elevated compared to elsewhere.