Convective Outlook: Tue 10 Aug 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 10 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 11 Aug 2021

ISSUED 07:17 UTC Tue 10 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Chris

The large upper trough that helped to trigger thunderstorms the last few days has exited to the east, however a smaller short-wave trough will move eastwards across Scotland today and may be enough to help produce some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms, particularly across eastern Scotland. 


Instability will be limited to around 300 J/kg, however PVA, ELTs of around -25C and surface convergence along with orographic enhancement will help to trigger heavy showers by the afternoon. This risk area is considered on the low end for SLGT, but nevertheless a few lightning strikes are possible. Eastern Scotland is the highest risk, but a small area around the N York Moors could also produce. 

There is also an enhanced risk of some funnels or a weak tornado in Scotland with surface convergence during the development phase of any stronger updrafts. However, the main hazard will once again by from flash flooding where locally in eastern Scotland 30-40mm or more may fall in a relatively short space of time. 

Finally a LOW risk has been issued for western parts of Ireland for the end of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure pushes a front into western Ireland. This environment lacks instability, but it will be heavily sheared and a few isolated lightning strikes are possible into Wednesday morning. The main risk there will be from gusty winds.