VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 Aug 2021

ISSUED 06:33 UTC Thu 12 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low, centred over the North Atlantic to the west of Ireland, will drift northeastwards close to W Scotland on Thursday night. Cold air aloft overspreading relatively warm SSTs and some modest diurnal heating inland will create an environment with a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Most model guidance depicts two distinct bands of heavy showers moving northeastwards across Ireland into western Scotland during the day, and it is likely these will provide the main focus for the risk of a few lightning strikes - especially when aided by orographic forcing in western Scotland. The strongly-sheared environment suggests the potential for some organisation, perhaps even some brief supercellular characteristics, with a risk of squally winds in excess of 50mph, hail and an isolated tornado given some backing of the low-level winds / strong LLS.