Convective Outlook: Fri 13 Aug 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 13 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 14 Aug 2021

ISSUED 06:57 UTC Fri 13 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will slide northeastwards to the north of Scotland on Friday, while weakening. The associated cold pool aloft atop relatively warm SSTs and modest diurnal heating inland will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE, with areas of showers likely affecting Ulster, Connacht and Scotland through the day aided by strong, unidirectional wind shear. A few isolated lightning strikes may be possible, more especially Caithness, Sutherland and Orkney where the deepest convection is expected, but the risk in any one location is rather low.