Forecast profiles yield substantial CAPE from parcels lifted above the EML, with strong mid/upper flow in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates - therefore, any deep convection that can develop has the potential to produce frequent lightning, but the biggest uncertainty is over the number of showers/thunderstorms that develop, and therefore coverage of lightning. Either way, in a broad sense there is scope for some elevated showers or thunderstorms to develop rather randomly within this zone through Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday. A blend of model guidance would imply the greatest activity may remain offshore over the Celtic Sea approaching southern Ireland, at least initially, with perhaps an uptick late in the night towards SW England and the Channel Islands further down the instability axis. Given the potential for some locally rather active thunderstorms, if confidence on specific areas increases a MDT may be introduced.