Convective Outlook: Fri 01 Oct 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 01 Oct 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 02 Oct 2021

ISSUED 05:58 UTC Fri 01 Oct 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front, with embedded line convection, will continue to clear southeastwards across England on Friday. There are reasonable signs this will intensify as it exits to the North Sea around midday/early afternoon. Scattered showers will then follow, with more organised heavy rain affecting western Scotland at times. Given an upper trough will be sliding northeastwards across Northern Ireland and Scotland during the day, the associated cold air aloft atop warm SSTs yielding several hundred J/kg CAPE, there could be a few sporadic lightning strikes almost anywhere associated with showers during the day - this mostly in western areas, and in any case a fairly low risk in any one location. Overnight, the next Atlantic low will arrive bringing more frontal rain across Ireland.