Convective Outlook: Sun 03 Oct 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Oct 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Oct 2021

ISSUED 06:48 UTC Sun 03 Oct 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad upper trough covers the UK and Ireland on Sunday, with several shortwaves rounding its base. As such, several low-end SLGTs have been issued, although as ever confidence is low in sea-driven convection as to how much lightning will occur. One shortwave will provide the focus for showers near western Britain first thing in the morning, these drifting eastwards inland across England and Wales through the day with numerous other showers developing in their wake. With diurnal heating aiding instability, a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible just about anywhere - but more especially in SW England, the far SE of Wales, West Country, M4 corridor / south Midlands towards London. The same is also true for E Ireland and the Irish Sea to NW Wales during the late afternoon/early evening.

A second shortwave will arrive over SW England during the mid-late evening, and this coupled with the steering flow backing slightly will allow numerous heavy showers to develop over the Celtic Sea and English Channel and advect inland into southern England and south Wales through the night. Once again there could be a few sporadic lightning strikes, especially from the Isle of Wight to London eastwards, and also S / SE Wales near the Brecon Beacons. Hail and gusty winds will accompany several showers.