Convective Outlook: Tue 05 Oct 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Oct 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Oct 2021

ISSUED 06:24 UTC Tue 05 Oct 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cut-off upper low will drift slowly eastwards from the West Midlands to northern Germany through Tuesday and Tuesday night. An active occlusion will bring heavy rain with embedded line convection across East Anglia and SE England first thing on Tuesday morning, but this will clear to the North Sea. There is a small risk of an isolated tornado with this feature for a time. Otherwise, much of the day will be dominated by rain along a wrap-around occlusion that will affect SE Scotland, northern England, north Wales and the Midlands, eventually feeding back into East Anglia later in the day. However, east of this within the low centre a few heavy showers will be possible from Yorkshire down to East Anglia, with a few other showers developing in Ireland and southwest Britain. In all cases a few isolated lightning strikes will be possible, but the risk is rather low in any one location.