Convective Outlook: Fri 29 Oct 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 29 Oct 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 30 Oct 2021

ISSUED 07:51 UTC Fri 29 Oct 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A shallow moist zone is likely to affect portions of the Midlands, and eastern Britain all the way from the Scottish Borders down to Kent, through Friday daytime resulting in initial frontal rain tending to break up into scattered heavy showers. The depth of convection for the most part will probably be too shallow for much in the way of lightning, however the reasonably strong low-level shear could allow some line segments to develop capable of producing strong gusts of winds. Locally backed surface winds ahead of the main surface trough axis/occlusion could in theory pose a small risk of an isolated tornado - but this risk will likely diminish after early afternoon since winds will be broadly unidirectional thereafter. 

A temporary lull will follow under a transient ridge, before more substantial deep convection arrives across Ireland and SW Britain during Friday afternoon as a series of shortwave troughs approach from the Atlantic, within an environment of cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs yielding several hundred J/kg CAPE. Clusters of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale into a more organised band of rain during the evening and night hours as PVA increases from the south, with a messy mixture of dynamic and convective rainfall then pushing into many western, and later central, parts of Britain. Most of the lightning activity will probably be offshore and weaken approaching land, especially given rather moist profiles with skinny CAPE. A strengthening low-level jet will develop on the leading edge of this line, increasing low-level shear - however, winds look fairly uni-directional and so while strong, gusty winds will be possible (especially near embedded convection) this may limit the tornado risk somewhat.