Convective Outlook: Sat 30 Oct 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 30 Oct 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 31 Oct 2021

ISSUED 07:27 UTC Sat 30 Oct 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather broad LOW has been issued for various features that will affect the UK/Ireland during Saturday and Saturday night. During the morning, a band of rain will continue to drift eastwards across central and eastern Britain with some embedded line segments possible - the depth of convection probably fairly shallow which will limit the lightning risk, but still capable of producing squally gusts of wind while the odd lightning strike cannot be ruled out. Locally enhanced low-level shear and vorticity could bring the risk of an isolated tornado.

Scattered showers will follow from the west, with the deepest convection likely in western Scotland during the afternoon hours where the odd lightning strike may be possible. During the late evening and overnight hours, the next band of rain will arrive into SW Ireland and spread northwards and eastwards towards western Britain. Once again, some embedded convective elements are likely which may be capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes, but the risk in any one place is too low to warrant a SLGT. Damaging squally winds and an isolated nocturnal tornado will also be possible with this feature, given the strong low-level shear and locally backed surface winds coupled with a strengthening LLJ in the vicinity. The risk of damaging wind/isolated tornadoes will be greatest where the best overlap of CAPE and low-level shear exists, which will primarily be near and some distance inland from coasts with an onshore flow - namely southern Munster, across Leinster into northern/eastern Ulster, and Wales / SW England. As such a SVR has been introduced, but as usual most areas within this zone will not necessarily experience severe conditions.