Convective Outlook: Mon 01 Nov 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 Nov 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 Nov 2021

ISSUED 07:27 UTC Mon 01 Nov 2021

ISSUED BY: null

Scattered showers will continue to move east or southeastwards through Monday and Monday night, occasionally merging to give longer spells of rain in parts of Scotland and northwest England in particular. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible from the strongest cells, but the risk in most locations is considered below SLGT threshold. The greatest risk overall will likely be through the English Channel, and here a low-end SLGT has been introduced. Gusty winds will be possible, especially English Channel, west coast of Devon and Cornwall and through the Bristol Channel. Some notably strong low-level shear/helicity is expected across Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire and Yorkshire which would in theory pose the threat for an isolated tornado, however CAPE is very low.