Convective Outlook: Mon 06 Dec 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 06 Dec 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 07 Dec 2021

ISSUED 07:46 UTC Mon 06 Dec 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A disrupting upper trough will rapidly extend southeastwards across the UK/Ireland on Monday daytime, exiting to the North Sea on Monday night. Around midday and into the afternoon some embedded convective elements may evolve over S / SE England and the English Channel on the rear side of the main frontal rain, capable of producing some particularly gusty winds. Behind the front, a substantial cold pool aloft (with a notably low tropopause) will overspread relatively warm SSTs and numerous showers are expected to develop and advect well-inland in the brisk northwesterly flow. A few lightning strikes will be possible, especially in W / SW Scotland where a low-end SLGT has been introduced - but perhaps also in some other areas with interaction with terrain (such as the West Pennine Moors down to the Peak District) and also where surface friction encourages low-level convergence to develop (such as the Bristol Channel into Somerset and adjacent Wiltshire/Dorset). Showers will gradually decay overnight as transient ridging develops from the west.