Convective Outlook: Tue 07 Dec 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Dec 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Dec 2021

ISSUED 07:05 UTC Tue 07 Dec 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Around the southern flank of a deep cyclone, a significant cold pool will overspread relatively warm SSTs to generate several hundred J/kg CAPE in the post-frontal environment. Numerous showers will develop and move inland into Wales and SW England (and SW Ireland), and increasingly through the English Channel during the evening/night and into adjacent coasts. Sporadic lightning and hail will be possible, perhaps also extending further north up through the Irish Sea. Squally winds will accompany many of the showers, at least for a time given mixing down of higher momentum air within the low-level jet - and a SVR has been issued to highlight the area at greatest risk of convective gusts exceeding 60mph (on top of an already strong background wind field). Meanwhile, strong shear with wind veer and shallow convection along the rear of the occlusion could lead to some line convection/squally conditions during Tuesday daytime.