Convective Outlook: Wed 08 Dec 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 Dec 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 Dec 2021

ISSUED 07:59 UTC Wed 08 Dec 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper and surface low will slowly fill while drifting eastwards across the UK on Wednesday. Bands of showers and longer spells of rain will rotate anticlockwise around the main circulation centred over Scotland - for most areas the steering flow will be west or northwesterly, but across northern Scotland it will be primarily southeasterly. The greatest risk of of a few lightning strikes will be largely confined to two main zones - one across northern Scotland / Moray Firth / Orkney, and the other between the tip of Cornwall and the Channel Islands and running near the French coast up to the Strait of Dover. However, there may be a period during the afternoon/early evening where a few lightning strikes could occur from the North Channel across the Isle of Man to Lancashire and the southern Pennines. In all cases the risk is considered around 15%, and so below the SLGT threshold.