Convective Outlook: Sat 01 Jan 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 01 Jan 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 02 Jan 2022

ISSUED 10:47 UTC Sat 01 Jan 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers across Ireland and Scotland on Saturday daytime could produce a few isolated lightning strikes. Overnight, attention turns to the approaching shortwave trough that will track across England and Wales during the early hours, and could produce a few isolated lightning strikes (but the risk is rather low in any one location). There is the possibility of a meso-low forming as dry air aloft attempts to wrap in, and could produce some strong gusts of wind in the vicinity. Strong low-level shear will be present, which could pose an isolated tornado threat, however profiles appear very moist with rather limited CAPE.