VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 02 Jan 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 03 Jan 2022

ISSUED 09:27 UTC Sun 02 Jan 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad west-southwesterly flow aloft covers the UK/Ireland on Sunday, with a couple of shortwave troughs embedded within. One will clear the east coast to the North Sea first thing on Sunday morning, the second will track eastwards across England and Wales between 11z-19z. These features will provide the focus for more organised areas of heavy, showery rain and may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes in places - the risk probably greatest over southern England where the best overlap of instability and shear is expected. One precluding factor for lightning is rather tall, skinny CAPE however the strong low-level shear (both speed and some directional) could allow some organisation of individual cells and an isolated tornado may be possible. Squally winds may accompany some of the showers.