| Convective Outlook: Thu 03 Feb 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 03 Feb 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Feb 2022
ISSUED 08:02 UTC Thu 03 Feb 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
An active cold front will track southeastwards across the UK and Ireland on Thursday and Thursday night, from NW Scotland at ~12z Thursday to Norfolk-Dorset by 06z Friday. Given a marked wind veer and thermal gradient, substantial low-level vorticity and shear, and notable low-level jet, this suggests line convection will likely evolve along the frontal boundary. Fairly moist profiles with weak/negligible CAPE suggests overall the risk of lightning is rather low, however a short-duration period of heavy rain and squally winds will be possible, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The risk of lightning is arguably greater (albeit still relatively low in any one location) in the post-frontal environment later in the night as a cold pool overspreads relatively warm SSTs, aiding the development of numerous showers over northern and western Scotland and portions of Ireland.
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