Convective Outlook: Mon 14 Feb 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Feb 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Feb 2022

ISSUED 07:16 UTC Mon 14 Feb 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will slide eastwards across Britain during Monday daytime, the base crossing central/southern areas. A wrap-around occlusion will provide outbreaks of rain across northern England, Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, but in the vicinity and to the south of this feature a few scattered showers may develop. The risk of lightning is considered quite low given weak CAPE. A transient ridge will then follow from the west later in the day, before the next Atlantic frontal system arrives overnight. A 700-mb dry intrusion over-running the cold front, with unstable profiles in the lower troposphere, suggests the potential for some relatively shallow convection along and following the cold front. Given the strong low-level shear present, line segments may develop at times capable of producing squally winds with gusts of 40-60mph. The lightning risk is rather low given the relatively shallow nature of convection, but there is a small risk of an isolated tornado.