Convective Outlook: Wed 16 Feb 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Feb 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Feb 2022

ISSUED 08:02 UTC Wed 16 Feb 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

During the afternoon and evening hours, a marked mid-level dry intrusion will overspread a surface cold front shifting southeastwards across Ireland, England and Wales. Very strong low-level shear and some modest CAPE suggests the potential for shallow but intense convection, with line segments both along the cold front, and perhaps other clusters in the post-frontal environment through the evening/night. These will be capable of producing squally winds and perhaps one or two isolated tornadoes - and a SVR has been introduced to highlight this risk. While the convection will, for the most part, be too shallow for lightning there could be a few odd strikes from the strongest cells - this perhaps most likely over northern England (while the tornado risk, albeit still very low in any one location, is probably higher across Wales/Midlands/East Anglia). Further showers, some with squally winds, will continue to feed into Ireland and N + W Britain through the night hours, and there could be a few sporadic lightning strikes in western Scotland, for example.