VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 08 Mar 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 09 Mar 2022

ISSUED 09:37 UTC Tue 08 Mar 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A negatively-tilted trough will swing northeastwards across Ireland on Tuesday, coinciding with diurnal heating. This is likely to yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE with scattered showers drifting northeastwards across Ireland. Forecast profiles reveal some reasonable speed and directional shear, which may aid somewhat in organisation/cell longevity to produce some lightning and perhaps hail locally >1cm in diameter. Tentatively introduced a low-end SLGT for the afternoon/early evening hours, although the risk overall is considered below SLGT thresholds. The risk may also extend into W / SW Scotland during the evening.