VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 11 Mar 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 12 Mar 2022

ISSUED 07:08 UTC Fri 11 Mar 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An Omega block persists across Europe, centred over the Baltic states on Friday. An upper trough will swing northeastwards across the UK/Ireland, with several shortwaves embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft. Behind frontal rain that will be migrating northeastwards across many areas during the day, cold air aloft will overspread Ireland, Wales, SW + Cen S England while surface temperatures recover as insolation increases. It is still quite early in the year for solely land-based convection, and with inland temperatures likely to reach similar values to SSTs then the generation/coverage of showers will be somewhat indiscriminate between open seas and inland. Nonetheless, showers are likely to affect regions mentioned above through the afternoon and evening which may be capable of a few lightning strikes, although the slacker flow across Ireland may allow better low-level convergence/forced ascent, in conjunction with deeper convection and greater instability, and so here the lightning risk was deemed a little higher and a SLGT issued as a result - one concern, however, may be the extent of cloud cover in the vicinity of the wrap-around occlusion. The strongest cells may produce some hail.