VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 13 Mar 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 14 Mar 2022

ISSUED 08:07 UTC Sun 13 Mar 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough and associated cold pool covers Ireland and western Britain on Sunday. Areas of showery rain will rotate around a surface low located northwest of Ireland. Modest surface heating will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE across the LOW threat area, most substantial towards Wales and SW England. The remnants of an old occlusion will likely be drifting eastwards across these areas (and further north into NW England, for example) coinciding with peak diurnal heating on Sunday afternoon and local low-level convergence. This will provide the focus for a north-south line of showery rain, but provided there is sufficient insolation then there will be scope for deep convection to evolve and hence the potential for a few lightning strikes. A low-end SLGT has been introduced where this is perhaps considered most likely, but in theory the risk (albeit lower) extends as far north as SW Scotland, and across portions of Ireland. Most of the shower activity will be largely located behind (to the west of) the main N-S jet core, which will tend to limit the magnitude of deep layer shear; nonetheless, any deep convection that can occur in the vicinity of the mid-level jet (i.e. further to the east) may benefit from additional cell organisation and longevity. Hail is possible in the strongest cells.